Am I the only one fascinated by the business world’s seeming willingness to believe that Google will succeed at whatever it tries? The company has just announced it will launch a corporate-targeted office suite, a la Microsoft, with word processing, e-mail and the like, clearly timed to compete with Vista and the release of Office 2007. The reaction is typical:
While Google’s latest foray into the corporate software market seems unlikely to topple the status quo right away, AMR Research analyst Jim Murphy said it’s only a matter of time before the Mountain View-based company becomes a major player.
“This is just the beginning,” Murphy said. “The real impact of what Google is trying to do probably won’t be evident for another five years.”
But in a fascinating article about Google’s attempt to digitize the world’s books–an effort many others, inlcuding the Library of Congress, have been working on for years, by the way–the New Yorker interviewed people who pointed out that not everything Google does turns to gold.
“Google didn’t get video search right—YouTube did,” Tim Wu, a professor at Columbia Law School, said. “Google didn’t get blog search right—technorati.com did.”
And that’s the point. Google, which is so often praised for its product development process, has actually failed to launch a truly successful product aside from Search. As Business Week pointed out last year, Google’s IM service is a distant 10th to Microsoft’s, Google Finance is only the 40th most-visited financial news website, and Gmail is used by only one-quarter the number of people who use Yahoo and MSN e-mail. They claim to be aiming for a 20-40% success rate with new products, but so far only one, Google Maps, has taken off. So why the assumption that they can successfully enter the corporate office suite market?
They have no experience making sales at a B2B, enterprise level, no experience intergating with firm’s firewall and privacy issues (a huge issue for this kind of software, especially if it’s web based), and no experience integrating with network work flows. That’s not to say it won’t be a great product or that it won’t make some strides, but let’s not assume out of the gate that Google will win at everything it tries. In fact, the assumption at this point should be that it will fail.
Search continues to grow at 30 to 40% a year, giving it a huge amount of cash with which to invest in new products, so maybe someday something will hit, but right now this is a company incredibly dependent on one product. Or, as Chris would put it: Tiny little ads.
Even Better Thoughts